While May saw broad gains across the board, June saw varying performance among industries and asset classes. This month, the divergence between mega-cap tech and the rest of the market was stark. This separation shows up in the more extensive return data as the equal-weighted S&P 500 is up 4.07% year-to-date, significantly underperforming the headline index, which gives greater weight to mega-cap technology. Market participants remain very bullish on corporate earnings growth over the next 12 months and continue to bid the market higher. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite led the way for June, appreciating 5.18%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the headline S&P 500 gained 1.12% and 3.1%, respectively. Precious metal gold was down 0.9% as market participants weighed a broad mix of economic data.
Inflation growth continues to slow. In mid-June, the market received soft CPI and PPI data for May. Separately, core PCE fell to the lowest level since March 2021. It is important to note that our inflation LEIs point to a downward bias over the next six to twelve months, but that ride could be choppy. At the same time, we received this softer inflation data and a hawkish Fed Reserve policy announcement. Market participants digested these variables by buying the 10-year U.S. Treasury, which saw its yield fall to 4.39% after reaching 4.6% on May 29th and 4.70% on April 25th. The decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury acts as a tailwind for long-duration assets like information technology stocks and our recent real estate investments.
Consumers continue to absorb pressure from the multi-year inflation run as participants in the most recent University of Michigan survey generated their lowest confidence (65.6) in seven months. The report stated, “While strong labor markets have blunted some of the impact of high prices on lower- and middle-income consumers in recent years, the continued challenges they face should not be ignored.” While inflation growth is projected to slow throughout the year, the cumulative growth over the last three years has been material and stressful for consumers. This stress will not disappear or reside on a Federal Reserve rate cut. This dynamic is critical to keep in mind as outstanding debt balances and delinquencies continue to grow at a time when the labor market is still relatively healthy (unemployment rate below 4%). We have seen many projections claiming the coast is clear, and we would be hesitant to subscribe to this mindset fully. We continue to invest in the stock market but are cognizant of the risks we feel are being disregarded too easily.
Please see the following updates on existing positions held at the firm:
Dominion Energy- (Ticker: D)- The utility company’s rebound stalled in June, but the year so far has been kind (up by over +6.7% in total return year-to-date). Dominion continues to project 5-7% compound annual earnings per share growth until 2029. During this same time, the management team estimates issuing approximately $3.5 billion of equity. The company appears on track to reach its ratio goal of 15% funds from operation to debt by year’s end. Getting to this leverage goal will be centered around realizing an estimated $16.4 billion in asset sales. We continue to project that data center electricity demand could allow for an upside surprise. The current annualized cash dividend yield is 5.25%.
Cheniere Energy (Ticker: LNG)- Cheniere strongly closed the month and quarter. Operationally, the company continues to execute, generating strong cash flow to boost buybacks, increase cash dividends, and pay down debt. Management plans to raise its quarterly dividend by 15%. Management reaffirmed the full-year EBITDA guidance as the strength of the company’s long-term contracts makes visibility slightly easier. The company bought back $1.2 billion in shares during the first quarter and increased its share repurchase authorization by $4 billion through 2027.
“Farmer Mac” Series C Preferred (Ticker: AGM-C)- We continue to project that management will call this federally chartered corporation preferred on July 18th. If this preferred is not called, the estimated coupon payment will increase to 8.9%. We believe this is way too expensive for FAMCA and that it will be called in July. Overall, this investment did everything we expected it to. The position provided a projectable high single-digit annualized rate of return while exposed to low market and credit risk.
Warrior Met Coal (Ticker: HCC)- The Alabama-based metallurgical coal company had a solid second quarter as we waited for the Blue Creek project to ramp up growth next year and meaningfully in 2026. At the core of our thesis, the stock market will start to price in the tons generated from this prominent project, and the stock price will move materially higher. We think that HCC is the best-of-breed met coal producer in the United States. In the near term, we will continue monitoring Met coal prices until summer ends, when India’s monsoon season begins. Demand from China and India has been quiet so far this year.
iShares Gold Trust- (Ticker IAU)- The gold tracking ETF fell about 1% this month. The reason for the inclusion of this brief is to update our thoughts on the precious metal. Recent economic data indicates a degree of softening in both primary inflation measures, CPI and PPI. These recent developments have pulled forward the possibility of a rate cut this year. A couple of days after the inflation figures, the Fed’s dot plot was released, which was more hawkish and showed that more voting members were less inclined to cut this year. Considering the mixed variables, we still plan to sell down our position in IAU about a month or two after the first rate cut.
Overall, markets continue to act on pure momentum. The S&P 500 has gone almost 18 months since it suffered a 2% daily decline. The underlying components are struggling to keep up with the broader domestic indices. Within the NASDAQ, we are witnessing record divergence, where we are seeing more NASDAQ components hitting 1- and 3-month lows than highs while the NASDAQ 100 is hitting all-time highs. This divergence does not mean the market rally has ended but that the “easy money” has probably been made. We appreciate your continued trust during these uneven times. As always, please feel free to contact the team with any questions!
Best regards,
Stash J. Graham
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